Summary
像世界大部分经济体一样，中国的经济增长受到新型冠状病毒疫情打击。然而，有迹象显示，中国已准备好走出低迷并恢复其长期增长趋势。
要点
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新型冠状病毒爆发导致增长放缓，随着企业复工、隔离措施放宽，以及人们重新外出，中国的经济复苏继续取得进展。中国消费者「一如往常」对复苏至为重要，中国经济需要国内需求来推动增长，特别是危机期间对中国出口的需求仍然低迷。中国的每日感染个案数量已下降至个位数水平，许多其他国家（尤其是南亚和东南亚国家）每天仍有数百至数千新增感染病例，这限制了经济需求。
什么促使经济从疫情中复苏？
在中国及广泛亚洲经济体，复苏速度将取决于四个关键因素：疫倩阶段、管理和控制病毒的机构的能力、央行提供刺激措施的能力和意愿，以及各个经济体对外贸易的开放程度。
亚洲的每日确诊感染个案数量
资料来源：约翰霍普金斯大学、MoH、MOPH、KCDC、Worldometers.info、安联投资经济及策略，截至2020年5月。
如图所示，就疫情阶段而言，中国在5月份已领先其他国家。 此外，中国政府在控制疫情方面一直采取果断措施，并持续进行政策干预及支持中国经济复苏。在5月举行的全国人民代表大会，中国政府宣布扩大财政赤字目标，以支持经济。为增加就业，政府承诺豁免工厂及零售商4万亿元人民币的税收，免除社保基金供款，并调低银行利率及公用事业开支。
政府亦宣布新一轮的财政和货币宽松政策，推出3.75万亿元人民币的特殊地方政府债务及1万亿元人民币的特别国债。同时，中国人民银行进一步降低银行的存款准备金率，以提供更多流动性，并贷款予中小型企业。
这些支持性措施仍未达到预期的干预水平，因为中国拒绝像2008年之后那样承担更多的债务。然而，中国政府明确表示，其已预留进一步的财政、金融和社会保障政策，若有必要进一步干预，将「毫不犹豫地」推出这些政策。
除新型冠状病毒疫情外，中国（及广泛亚洲市场和全球贸易）面临的主要风险或会是与美国的贸易紧张局势再度升温。特朗普总统可能会以中国作为他的连任竞选活动重心。任何严厉的言论或关税增加均可能对市场情绪造成负面影响。
其他亚洲经济体将表现如何？
纵观其他亚洲经济体，南韩和台湾亦处于疫情的较后阶段，出现第二波爆发的风险较低。因此，我们预期这两个经济体将紧随中国之后逐步复苏。我们预期，南亚及东南亚经济体（特别是印度、印尼及菲律宾）在复苏之前或会面临更多困难，这主要是由于疫情在这些国家持续蔓延，新增感染病例仍不断上升。我们认为这些经济体提供的财政刺激措施不足以抵销新型冠状病毒疫情的影响。
股市回升，但预期未来将有更多波动
各个国家的股市表现很可能会受到疫情的预期严重程度、未来特殊风险（例如系统性信贷违约）的发生机率以及负面地缘政治事件风险的影响，使复苏脱轨。中国、台湾及南韩在这些指标的表现较佳。
然而，这些市场的股票价格已自3月下旬的低位显著回升，因此投资者应保持审慎，预期未来仍会波动。定息收益投资方面，我们认为亚洲政府债务需要重组的可能性很小，因此建议投资者增持主权及半主权信贷。这些证券由于市场忧虑而被抛售，导致息差扩阔至过往提供理想价值的水平。我们较看好北亚经济体（尤其是中国），对南亚和东南亚经济体则较不乐观。
中国或会是新型冠状病毒的「首个爆发点，以及首个复苏地」
像世界上所有经济体一样，中国受到新型冠状病毒爆发的影响。然而，中国政府采取果断措施遏制疫情，刺激商业活动，并采取必要的政策干预措施来支持其经济复苏。
中国是第一个陷入危机的国家，该国似乎已作好准备成为第一个复苏并延续增长趋势的国家。风险仍然存在，但中国继续发展成为环球经济的中心枢纽，可望在漫长的复苏路上领航。
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Summary
Despite the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, and continuing tensions with the US, China remains on course to become the world’s largest economy by 2030. This could represent the coming decade’s most transformative development in global financial markets – and a major opportunity for investors.
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