Navigating new cyclical and secular risks
The global financial crisis triggered shifts in monetary policy, corporate behaviour and investor attitudes that are now beginning to normalise.
A new survey commissioned by Allianz Global Investors reveals most institutions believe the risk environment is at an inflection point. Three-quarters of respondents describe themselves as extremely concerned or very concerned about inflation, 79% feel that way about monetary policy and 80% are worried about market volatility. At the same time, nearly nine out of 10 respondents (87%) think investors generally have grown complacent about risk management in the decade since the crisis, and 59% say loose central-bank policy has introduced a new level of risk.
Besides these economic cycle-related risks, 76% of institutions expect risks from new regulations to threaten their success over the next five years, and 50% see privacy breaches or other cyber-security issues on the horizon. These fears reflect ongoing long-term shifts in the business environment, including a continual rethinking of financial-industry oversight and the digitisation of more investment processes, both customer-facing and back-office. Hedging a portfolio against all such risks may not be technically possible, but regulation and cyber-security are both areas where an active manager closely familiar with an institution’s structure, culture and practices can reduce uncertainty by helping to anticipate and protect against potential problems.
In the shorter term, anxiety about market risks over the coming 12 months is far more prevalent than a year ago. Not surprisingly, the rise in “considerable threat” responses is sharpest for inflation and interest-rate risk. But fears about credit, counterparty and liquidity risk have also risen dramatically.
Faced with uncertainty, it may be tempting to take risk off the table altogether. But doing so could harm purchasing power over time and, with interest rates expected to remain low for a while longer, the hunt for yield remains pressing. Economies may be cyclical, but time is linear – people still need to plan for the future. The biggest risk could be to take no risk.
Explore Insights
To learn more AllianzGI’s key findings about risk management, and key areas of investor interest such as ESG and digital transformation, download the full report of “Staying active: how to regain trust in active management”, a survey with nearly 500 institutional investors worldwide.