9 things to know about China’s bond markets
Summary
China’s bond markets have historically been underutilised by many foreign investors, but things are changing. Steady reforms, an increasingly internationalised currency and attractive yields are resulting in increased inflows. Read these nine tips to understand the essentials of investing in China’s fixed-income marketplace.
1 Asian Bonds Online. Data as at 31 December 2020.
2 FTSE Russell. Data as at 31 December 2020 (updated quarterly). FTSE Dim Sum Bond Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of the China offshore CNH bond universe.
3 JP Morgan. Data as at 31 December 2020. JP Morgan Asia Credit Index (JACI) is an unmanaged index considered representative of the Chinese USD denominated bond universe.
Index information for Exhibit 8: Asia ex-Japan equity is represented by MSCI AC Asia ex. Japan Index; Asia bonds by J.P. Morgan JACI composite Total Return; China onshore government by Markit iBoxx ALBI China Onshore Government (USD Unhedged) TRI; China onshore aggregate by Bloomberg Barclays China Aggregate TR Index; China A-shares by MSCI China A Onshore Net Total Return Index USD; emerging-market hard-currency bonds by J.P. Morgan EMBI Plus Composite; emerging-market local-currency bonds by J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Composite Unhedged USD; US investment grade by ICE BofA US Corporate Index; US high yield by ICE BofA US High Yield Index; global sovereign by J.P. Morgan GBI Global Unhedged USD; global aggregate by Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD; global equity by MSCI ACWI Index; global emerging-market equity by MSCI Emerging Markets Gross Total Return USD Index; global REITs by MSCI World Real Estate Total Return USD Index. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
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2021 mid-year outlook
Summary
The economic outlook is positive at the mid-year point, thanks in large part to the significant economic stimulus packages over the past year, but all this growth may come at a price.
There are three main ways to access China’s bond markets
China’s fixed-income marketplace isn’t monolithic, but it is massive. The onshore RMB segment alone is bigger than those in France, Germany and the UK combined (see Exhibit 1).
China’s currency has several names, but “renminbi” is arguably more important for bond investors
Outside of Asia, “yuan” is generally the term used to describe China’s currency. But “renminbi” (abbreviation: RMB) is the official legal name of China’s currency, and the term used the most in China and in Asia overall. Bond investors should be aware of the two kinds of renminbi (see Exhibit 2) used in financial transactions.
China’s regulators are intent upon making the onshore RMB currency (the CNY) a more “internationalised” one – similar to how the US dollar (USD) is used around the world to conduct transactions. That makes the onshore RMB bond market increasingly important
China’s onshore RMB bond market is large and growing
The total value of China’s onshore RMB bond market reached USD 15.5 trillion at the end of 2020, and many market participants are expecting the market to grow significantly in the coming years (see Exhibit 3).
China’s onshore RMB bond market is also diverse, with three main segments of the market: money market instruments, “rates” and “credits”.
The creditworthiness of onshore RMB bonds can vary widely
When investing in the onshore RMB bond market, it’s important to work with a partner who can help you assess the creditworthiness of an issuer. The credit quality of bonds issued by LGBs, SOEs and private companies can vary widely. Moreover, China’s onshore credit rating system differs from international rating conventions. For example, onshore bonds rated AA+ would typically be rated as “high yield” on an international scale (see Exhibit 4).
Foreign ownership of RMB bonds is rising
China has been making it easier for non-mainland China investors to access to its domestic capital markets. This has paved the way for Chinese bonds to be included in global benchmark indices – with the latest being the FTSE Russell WGBI in November 2021. China is also working to make the renminbi a more “internationalised” currency. Together, these factors should help international investors’ holdings of RMB bonds to rise over time.
But international investors still own less than 3% (about USD 540 billion) of the entire RMB bond market (see Exhibit 5). This is significantly lower than the 10%-25% foreign bond ownership range observed in other emerging-market nations. It is also lower than China’s representation in major global bond indices. This indicates that foreign interest will likely keep growing in the coming years.
Rising demand for the RMB may help RMB-denominated bonds to appreciate in value over time
In recent years, governments and companies have grown increasingly comfortable using the renminbi to conduct international transactions (see Exhibit 6). This can help these institutions eliminate currency risk, since one currency doesn’t need to be exchanged for the other – a process that can cause fluctuations in value.
Another factor making the renminbi attractive to international investors is the way China’s central bank – the People’s Bank of China, or PBoC – has resumed using conventional tools (such as adjusting the short-term interest rate) to enact its monetary policy. Compare this with the unconventional tools that other large central banks are using, such as the massive bond purchases known as “quantitative easing”. Some investors consider these tools to be less sustainable and possibly riskier. That makes the PBoC’s more conventional approach – and China’s renminbi – more attractive to many international investors.
As the international community turns to the renminbi, there should be a corresponding need for investors to seek investment assets denominated in renminbi. This may help lift the value of RMB bonds over time, which would likely benefit investors who already own these bonds.
Onshore bonds can bring diversification benefits
Onshore RMB bonds have exhibited low correlations to other asset classes (see Exhibit 7). Case in point: onshore RMB bonds moved in the same direction as global bonds only 22% of the time. As a result, holding onshore RMB bonds in a global portfolio may improve overall diversification.
Adding onshore RMB bonds can enhance the risk/return profile of investors’ portfolios
Over time, the returns of onshore RMB bonds have been steady. Moreover, their volatility has remained low, meaning there have been relatively few large swings either up or down. When these two metrics are taken together, they can be expressed as a “risk/return” profile. And as Exhibit 8 shows, onshore RMB bonds have an attractive risk/return profile compared with other major asset classes. That can make onshore RMB bonds a helpful addition to a range of portfolios
China’s onshore bonds offer added yield potential in today’s low-yield environment
Interest rates in developed economies have been low or even negative for some time. This has contributed to low to negative yields for many types of bonds, as the accompanying chart shows. Moreover, given that the global economic environment continues to be somewhat weak, we expect interest rates to remain at the suppressed levels for some time. That makes it all the more important for investors to pursue sufficient sources of yield potential. Onshore RMB Chinese government bonds (CGBs) have a higher yield than most developed-market government bonds (see Exhibit 9). Moreover, CGBs offer an average credit rating of A+. That means investing in CGBs can provide investors with solid credit quality and attractive additional yields.