Active is: 把握中国投资机会
中国或可在疫情及贸易战之后重拾增长
Summary
虽然新型冠状病毒疫情带来影响以及与美国的关系持续紧张，中国仍可望于2030年之前成为世界最大的经济体，这或会是未来十年环球金融市场最具变革性的发展，对投资者来说可能是一个重大机遇。
要点
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世界仍在对抗病毒，许多人认为将要面对严重衰退，投资者需要寻找新的增长潜力来源。我们认为答案之一是着眼于中国，尤其是中国A股。
投资于中国并非没有风险或争议。中美陷入长期的贸易纠纷，疫情令现时的紧张局势更加升温。与世界其他地区的增长一样，疫情爆发亦减慢了中国的增长。
但事实上，就基本因素而言，中国可能仍然是吸引的投资机会。这主要有三个原因：中国已对外开放市场，为投资者提供吸引的增长潜力，该国亦正向2030年成为全球最大经济体这个目标迈进。随着时间，这很可能会加深结构性的投资趋势，投资者或会逐步增加对中国的投资 ─ 主动型投资者可能希望为这种转变预先作好准备。
中国市场对外开放
中国一直努力向国际投资者开放市场。2014年启动的沪港通计划促进了在上海和深圳交易所上市的中国A股（总市值约为8.5万亿美元，与欧元区相当）的流通。
2018年，A股被纳入MSCI两个主要指数，这意味着追踪这些基准的资金必须买入中国股票，大大增加了资金流入。中国市场日益制度化亦提高了其吸引力。
现时，A股指数中的上市公司需要每季提交报告，超过一半的大型A股企业已采用全球会计标准并雇用国际核数师。虽然投资者应保持审慎，但透明度及企业管治改善有助应对过去A股市场面对的波动性。
中国的增长故事吸引
中国经济正在转变。曾经被视为世界工厂，现在它更专注于高价值的商品和服务。「中国制造2025」计划提高了生物科技、汽车和半导体等行业的国内产量，从而减少对外国供货商的依赖。
此外，包括旅游业在内的其他高价值行业亦受惠于中国社会的广泛转变。在新型冠状病毒爆发之前推动经济增长的新兴中产阶级，应有助为经济从疫情中初步复苏提供动力，并继续推动中国从出口主导型经济转型至聚焦国内消费。
A股市场为投资者提供投资于那些高价值行业中小型公司的机会，这些行业将成为未来中国经济增长的推动力。
中国向成为世界最大经济体迈进
2020年之前的12年间，中国的国内生产总值增加了一倍，平均年增长率为7%。即使在疫症爆发之前，经济放缓似乎已是不可避免，这主要由于中国自环球金融危机以来债务迅速积累，政府希望在未来限制信贷增长。新型冠状病毒爆发加剧了这些挑战，在2020年4月，中国公布第一季国内生产总值按年下跌6.8%，是中国经济四十多年来首次出现下跌。
中国与美国的关系持续紧张，其宣布将不设2020年的国内生产总值目标，这是三十年来首次。虽然国际货币基金组织预测中国在2020年的国内生产总值增长为1.2%，远低于先前的预期，但大多数主要经济体将因疫情而下跌，包括预期美国国内生产总值将下跌5.9%。中国经济若可录得正数增长，将可证明习近平主席的长期策略，并标志着该国的增长重回轨道。
如何投资于中国
对于考虑投资中国的投资者，过往A股与环球市场的相关性很低，这表示投资A股或可能带来额外的多元化好处。虽然中国A股市场持续制度化或会推高相关性，但这一变化很可能是需时多年的渐进过程。
由于企业收入来自当地，加上独特的经济和货币政策，中国A股与主要股票市场的相关性较低
截至2020年1月31日。
相关性数据根据过去十年各项MSCI指数的过往回报（每周数据，美元回报）来计算。请于本文件的最后部分查看所有特定基准的全名。
资料来源：彭博、安联投资。
由于主要指数（例如 MSCI世界指数）现时已涵盖 A股，部分投资者或将透过追踪基准来捕捉中国的增长。我们认为，这种投资方式或会错过当中的机遇，因为中国仅占这些指数很小部分。例如，A股仅占MSCI新兴市场指数（代表环球新兴市场）的 4.1%，在MSCI综合世界（美国除外）指数（代表国 际股票表现）仅占0.5%，然而，中国目前约占全球经济总生产的15%。
因此，审慎进行主动配置或会是在管理风险的同时，全面捕捉中国投资机会的关键。
投资者可望受惠于拥有当地知识及采取灵活主动管理方式的合作伙伴。无论当前的市场环境如何，在安联投资，我们均将选股视作风险和回报的主要推动因素。我们透过广泛的专有研究，以及与上市公司管理团队定期接触，来实现这一目标。环境、社会和管治（ESG）因素现已纳入我们的中国A股策略投资流程，在风险管理方面增加多一重考虑。
虽然对某些投资者来说，中国可能是一个具争议性的话题， 我们预期中国可延续其增长趋势，世界各地的投资者将逐步跟从，现时或会是在这一趋势中占领先机的时机。
图表中所使用的基准列表
| 彭博代码 | 指数名称 | 代表市场: |
|---|---|---|
| MXCN1A Index | MSCI中国A股在岸指数 | 中国A股 |
| MXCN Index | MSCI中国指数 | 香港上市中国股票 |
| MXAPJ Index | MSCI综合亚洲（日本除外）指数 | 亚太区（日本除外）股票 |
| MXEF Index | MSCI新兴市场指数 | 环球新兴市场股票 |
| TPX Index | 东证指数 | 日本股票 |
| SPX Index | 标普500指数 | 美国股票 |
| MXEU Index | MSCI欧洲指数 | 欧洲股票 |
| MXWO Index | MSCI世界指数 | 环球股票 |
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